← Distorted Reflections Store Championship
Fire SuitedTier 1
at Distorted Reflections Store Championship
decks
2
(11.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
13
7-5-1
overall winrate
57.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
56.0%
avg ELO +2.5 per match
expected value
52.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1401
· median 1401
· range 1352–1449
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1159
Q1 1331
Q3 1467
1642
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 29.4% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 57.8% | +4.5 |
| Horse and Taxes | 11.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.0% | -1.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.5% | +16.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.3% | -13.9 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.9% | -9.8 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.5% | +18.4 |
| Water Fractal | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.1% | -7.8 |
